Monday, October 10, 2005

New Killings on Monday 18 Iraqis and 1 US Soldier Dead

Good afternoon.

Today has been another day of drive by shootings and car and roadside bombs that have left at least 18 Iraqi's dead as well as one US soldier.

The attacks came as Shiite and Kurdish officials continued to negotiate with Sunni Arab leaders over last-minute additions to the constitution, trying to win Sunni support ahead of Saturday's referendum.

Shiites, Kurds as well as Americans are trying to negotiate with Shiites for last minute ammendments to the new referendum which has been published and distributed to voters. So far, there has been no meeting of the minds. No placations.

At this point Shiites feel disenfranchised from a United Iraq, that the new constitution would divide the country into two oil rich, nearly autonomous regions: The northern Kurdish controlled state and the Southern Shiite controlled state. This would leave most Sunnis isolated in central and western Iraq.

Different voices from the Sunni party are creating confusion among the Sunni population as to what would be the best way to handle the vote. One voice/side of the Sunni camp says that Sunnis should boycott the vote, as the vote is deemed to be invalid anyway. The other voice from the other side of the Sunni camp says that that Sunnis should go out and vote and vote "NO", to the new referrendum. What actually will occur on Saturday remains to be seen. Some people say that between the no-shows and the "no" votes that one will cancel out the other and that there will be no unification of the Sunni voice. Should that occur, the referendum will pass and as a consequence very deeply divide the nation and tick off the Sunnis even more. A ticked off Sunni is not a pretty thing, so if this happens, it is certain that the violence will continue for a long time to come. At this point the only way the Sunnis can do anything about the referendum (Short of an 11th hour negotiation which will risk the validity of the vote anyway since voters will be voting on an outdated version), is to vote NO. Sunnis can defeat the charter if they get a two-thirds "no" vote in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces and they have the potential to make that threshold in four provinces. Defeating the charter will mean that it goes back to the drawing board and the process starts from a new.

I'll be counting down the days until the vote. I'll be counting down the deaths until the vote. As with the last vote, I will be counting the deaths after the vote.

In the last 15 days, at least 338 people have been killed across Iraq, including nine American soldiers.

That's it for now, and until later.....

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